Nearly two decades after conducting its last national population and housing census, Nigeria continues to grapple with the challenge of planning for one of Africa’s largest populations without current and verified demographic data, raising concerns over governance, economic planning and preparations ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The country’s last official census was carried out in 2006. Since then, successive administrations have repeatedly pledged to conduct a fresh headcount, but the exercise has yet to materialise, leaving government institutions, investors, development partners and policymakers to rely largely on population projections instead of accurate figures.
At the centre of the exercise is the National Population Commission (NPC), the constitutionally empowered agency responsible for conducting the census. However, a combination of financial constraints, insecurity, logistical difficulties and political considerations has consistently delayed the exercise.
Unlike many countries where population censuses are viewed primarily as statistical exercises, Nigeria’s census has far-reaching political and economic implications. Population figures determine the allocation of public resources, political representation, constituency boundaries, infrastructure planning and the distribution of development projects across the federation.
Because of these implications, census exercises in Nigeria have traditionally generated intense debate, with questions often raised about transparency, methodology and regional interests.
The prolonged absence of updated demographic information has created significant planning challenges for governments at the federal, state and local levels.
Without reliable population data, authorities face difficulties in accurately determining the number of schools, hospitals, roads, housing units and other essential infrastructure required to meet the needs of citizens.
Rapidly expanding cities such as Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Port Harcourt and Onitsha have experienced significant population growth over the past two decades, placing enormous pressure on public services and infrastructure. Yet decisions affecting these urban centres continue to be based largely on estimates rather than verified census figures.
Despite the repeated postponements, the Federal Government has already invested substantial resources in preparations for the exercise.
During the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, approximately ₦800 billion was approved for census activities, with about ₦224 billion reportedly released to the National Population Commission.
Former NPC Chairman Nasir Isa Kwarra disclosed that nearly ₦200 billion had already been spent on preparations, including the procurement of more than 760,000 digital devices intended to facilitate Nigeria’s first fully digital population census.
The census was originally scheduled to take place in 2023 but was postponed indefinitely.
Speaking in 2024, Kwarra expressed concern over the continued delay, warning that prolonged inactivity could render many of the procured devices unusable as their batteries deteriorate over time.
President Bola Tinubu has repeatedly reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to conducting a credible and technology-driven national census.
While inaugurating the National Coordination Committee for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) and launching the National Geospatial Data Repository in Abuja, the President described accurate population data as indispensable for national development and effective governance.
According to Tinubu, reliable information on the country’s population size, distribution and characteristics remains fundamental to achieving the objectives of his administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
He assured the National Population Commission of the Federal Government’s continued support and pledged to provide the resources required for the successful conduct of the exercise.
The commitment was reinforced in April 2025 when the President inaugurated a presidential committee to review the nation’s readiness for the census.
The committee, chaired by the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, was tasked with reviewing preparations and making recommendations within a specified period.
Similarly, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris, reiterated the government’s resolve to ensure that the census is transparent and meets international standards.
He noted that credible demographic data forms the basis of effective policymaking, adding that government communication agencies, including the National Orientation Agency, Nigerian Television Authority, Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, Voice of Nigeria and the News Agency of Nigeria, stand ready to mobilise nationwide participation once an official census date is announced.
The assurance has also been echoed by the current Chairman of the National Population Commission, Dr. Aminu Yusuf, who assumed office in December 2025.
Yusuf stated that the commission has completed most of the technical preparations required for a digital census and remains ready to commence the exercise immediately the President issues the constitutional proclamation fixing the census date.
Renewed optimism emerged following the inclusion of a proposed ₦12.78 billion allocation to the NPC in the 2026 national budget, reviving expectations that Nigeria may finally conduct the long-delayed exercise.
Nevertheless, concerns remain over the timing of the census, particularly as preparations for the 2027 general elections gradually gather momentum.
Experts note that organising a nationwide census close to a major election cycle could place enormous pressure on government institutions because both exercises require extensive logistics, funding, security deployment, public awareness campaigns and nationwide coordination.
The overlapping demands could complicate implementation and generate fresh political concerns, making the timing of the census a critical issue.
Beyond politics, the consequences of the continued delay are becoming increasingly significant.
Accurate demographic information is essential for tackling unemployment, poverty, healthcare delivery, education planning, migration management and infrastructure development.
Reliable population data also plays an important role in attracting investment, as businesses depend on accurate demographic information to evaluate market potential, labour availability and consumer demand.
Although Nigeria can legally conduct elections without first holding a new census, experts warn that making major political and economic decisions based on outdated population figures carries considerable risks.
As Africa’s most populous nation marks 20 years without an official population count, questions continue to mount over how long the country can effectively plan for sustainable development without knowing the exact size and distribution of its population.
The eventual conduct of a credible national census is therefore expected to play a crucial role in strengthening governance, improving policy formulation and supporting Nigeria’s long-term economic and social development.