Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, has left the All Progressives Congress (APC) to join the Social Democratic Party (SDP), citing issues like lack of internal democracy within the APC. This move has stirred political discussions, with analysts speculating that El-Rufai might aim for the presidency, potentially with a southern running mate. His defection has divided opinions among northern and southern leaders, raising questions about its implications for the opposition.
Critics, such as Suleiman Abdul-Aziz of the Northern Elders Forum (NEF), argue that El-Rufai’s decision is driven by personal ambition rather than the collective good. Abdul-Aziz highlighted El-Rufai’s controversial political history, including policies during his tenure as governor that alienated traditional leaders and constituents. He also pointed out the perceived hypocrisy in El-Rufai’s current stance, given his past criticisms of northern leaders.
El-Rufai’s attempt to position himself as a unifying figure who bridges the North-South divide has been met with skepticism. While this strategy could appeal to voters disillusioned by the APC’s internal conflicts, it risks alienating northern constituents who value regional loyalty. The North’s complex socio-political dynamics and historical grievances make it a challenging region to navigate politically.
The Igbo National Council (INC) dismissed El-Rufai’s defection as inconsequential, attributing it to personal interests rather than a genuine commitment to good governance or political reform. INC President Chilos Godsent described El-Rufai as an aggrieved APC member rather than a true opposition figure, questioning his ability to gain significant political momentum.
Other commentators, like former Secretary-General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, noted that political defections are common in Nigeria and rarely lead to electoral success. Sani emphasized the importance of unity among opposition parties but expressed doubts about their ability to challenge the APC effectively, citing the lack of charismatic leaders like Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Tinubu.
Despite the criticisms, some believe El-Rufai’s move could revitalize the opposition. Mohammed Talban Shika observed a growing support base for the SDP in states like Kaduna, Zamfara, and Yobe, attributing this to El-Rufai’s influence. Similarly, Chief Godson Ibrede of the South-South Leaders Forum acknowledged El-Rufai’s political strength and nationwide connections, suggesting he could lead a movement to challenge the APC’s dominance.