The prospect of former President Goodluck Jonathan making a political comeback in 2027 has set tongues wagging across Nigeria’s political space. Reports indicate that influential northern power brokers, some of whom were key players in his ouster during the 2015 elections, are now considering rallying behind him for the presidency. Their calculations are strategic: Jonathan remains constitutionally eligible to run, and if elected, he would only be entitled to one more term. This, they believe, provides the North with a shorter wait before reclaiming the presidency by 2031.

Jonathan’s political history makes this move even more intriguing. He first assumed office in 2010 after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, before winning the 2011 election. His defeat to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 seemed to have ended his political career, especially as the constitution was later amended in 2017 to limit presidents to two terms. However, that amendment does not apply retroactively, leaving Jonathan free to contest again.

For northern politicians dissatisfied with President Bola Tinubu’s leadership, Jonathan represents a safer bet compared to Peter Obi. Obi’s insistence on running, coupled with his strong base among non-Yoruba southerners and northern Christians, makes him less appealing to the northern establishment. His promise to serve only one term is also widely dismissed as unreliable, given Nigeria’s history of broken political pledges. Jonathan, on the other hand, is constitutionally bound to a single term, making him a bridge candidate who satisfies both regional rotation demands and northern interests.

Yet, the irony remains striking: those who once forced Jonathan out of Aso Rock may now be the ones ushering him back. If he does contest, nostalgia for his relatively stable economic years could work in his favor, as Nigerians compare his era with the current economic hardship under Tinubu. However, Jonathan’s re-entry would also split Obi’s support base and potentially trigger a four-way contest between Tinubu, Jonathan, Atiku Abubakar, and Obi.

Such a scenario would almost certainly push the election toward a runoff, given the constitutional requirement of winning 25% in 24 states and the FCT. If Jonathan declares, the 2027 election could transform from a predictable contest into a fierce, unpredictable battle that reshapes Nigeria’s political landscape.