Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the UK Conservative Party, is under increasing scrutiny following a damning YouGov poll that reveals the party’s worst polling performance in recent history. The survey, conducted between May 18 and 19 with over 2,200 adults, shows the Conservatives have plummeted to just 16% support—placing them in fourth position behind Reform UK (29%), Labour (22%), and the Liberal Democrats (17%). This marks the first time since June 2019 that the Conservatives have fallen to fourth place in such a poll, underscoring the party’s deepening crisis and diminishing public support.
The situation is reminiscent of the political turmoil during the Brexit impasse that led to former Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation. Back then, the Nigel Farage-led Brexit Party surged in popularity—much like the current rise of Reform UK, now once again spearheaded by Farage. Reform’s resurgence is largely driven by public frustration over immigration, with 50% of respondents in the same poll naming immigration and asylum as among the UK’s top concerns—the highest level since the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Compounding the pressure on Badenoch is the Conservatives’ catastrophic showing in the recent local elections. The party lost all the councils it previously controlled and over 670 councillors, while Reform UK gained ground, securing control of 10 county councils and topping national vote share in many areas. Reports from The Independent suggest Conservative MPs are now holding behind-the-scenes discussions about ousting Badenoch, with some lawmakers openly doubting her capability to lead the party out of crisis.
Critics accuse Badenoch of lacking a clear strategy and failing to effectively counter the rise of Reform UK. She has been criticised for her limited media presence and vague policy outlines, which have allowed Farage to dominate the public discourse. Despite admitting that the Conservatives mishandled immigration, her proposals—such as a visa cap—remain light on detail, which has done little to stem Reform’s momentum.
Political analysts warn that the Conservative Party could face a fate similar to that of France’s Republicans, who were sidelined by a populist wave. Polling expert Luke Tryl emphasized that the current shifts in British politics are unprecedented and call for a bold and coherent strategy. According to Electoral Calculus projections based on current polling, the Conservatives could win just 17 seats in a general election, while Reform might secure a commanding majority with 346 seats.
From a peak of 53% approval during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Conservatives have suffered a steady decline, exacerbated by scandals like Partygate, economic instability under Liz Truss, and ongoing infighting. Although Badenoch has urged for patience and more time to rebuild voter confidence, internal and external pressures are mounting for swift, decisive leadership to halt the party’s downward spiral.