Few political movements in Nigeria’s recent history have generated as much passion, volunteerism, and emotional investment as the Obedient Movement that rallied around Peter Obi. Its followers are arguably the most dedicated, vociferous, and ideologically driven political base Nigeria has seen since 1999. They are united by a shared belief in discipline, accountability, production over consumption, and a break from elite capture of the state. Yet, elections are not won by passion alone; they are won by strategy. Can moral enthusiasm alone deliver victory in a system designed to test organisation, influence, and resilience? The 2023 election exposed a harsh reality: loud support, massive online presence, and visible urban enthusiasm do not automatically translate into electoral victory in Nigeria’s complex political environment.
Despite the overwhelming perception among the public and political commentators that Peter Obi won the 2023 elections, the officially announced results placed him in third position. For millions of supporters, this was a bitter contradiction between hope and outcome, emotion and reality. This result reflected the structural weaknesses we have identified: insufficient grassroots infrastructure, limited local alliances, inadequate election-day logistics, and the pervasive “I no dey give shishi” mindset that restricted tangible contributions from supporters. Passion alone could not make up for the absence of organisation, strategy, and resources. Without addressing these gaps, the 2027 elections risk becoming a repeat of 2023, producing the same excitement and emotional investment but the same disappointing outcome.
The Obedient Movement’s greatest assets are its unusually motivated support base, its strong moral framing and reformist narrative, its youth and middle-class appeal, its high visibility on social and traditional media, and its culture of volunteerism and organic mobilisation. Yet, these strengths, as inspiring as they are, remain largely in the realm of advocacy politics rather than electoral politics. Elections in Nigeria are won not only with ideas and slogans, but through ground infrastructure, elite negotiations, local political ecosystems, turnout engineering, and risk-aware execution. The movement currently resembles a powerful protest force more than a fully institutionalised electoral machine, and this distinction can be the difference between hope and reality.
One of the core failures of 2023 was the assumption that moral appeal and popular enthusiasm would overwhelm Nigeria’s entrenched electoral system. This misreading led to weak polling-unit presence in many rural and semi-urban areas, limited alliances with local political power brokers, insufficient election-day logistics, overdependence on spontaneous volunteerism, and late-stage organisational build-up. The Nigerian electoral terrain is not neutral. It is shaped by incumbency advantages, party structures, informal networks, financial muscle, ethnic and religious mobilisation, and long-standing patronage systems. Any movement that ignores this reality is not being principled; it is being strategically naïve.
Another factor that affected the 2023 outcome was the pervasive culture of “I no dey give shishi.” This phrase, widely used to describe a refusal to contribute money, resources, or time to collective political efforts, reflected a deeper challenge within the movement. While enthusiasm was high, many supporters were unwilling to translate their support into tangible, strategic action, such as funding local structures, coordinating voter mobilisation, or sustaining grassroots campaigns. This mindset severely limited operational capacity, particularly in rural and semi-urban areas where financial and organisational inputs are critical to winning elections. Passion alone could not compensate for the absence of discipline, structure, and collective commitment.
The Obedient Movement’s dominance of online discourse created a psychological echo chamber. Visibility was mistaken for reach. Passion was mistaken for penetration. But elections are won in polling units, ward structures, turnout operations, and local power calculations, not on digital platforms alone. Millions of Nigerian voters are offline, economically vulnerable, embedded in patron-client networks, and heavily influenced by community leaders, religious authorities, and immediate material conditions. The challenge is clear: without integrating these realities into a coherent strategy, symbolic power will remain just that—symbolic.
If the Obedient Movement is serious about 2027, it must evolve from a moral movement into a political system. This requires a shift in mindset from speaking truth to power toward building power to implement truth. Every proposed strategy must be linked directly to votes. Investing in nationwide polling-unit infrastructure ensures that supporters’ votes are collected and protected. Forming strategic alliances prevents opposition advantage in key regions. Mobilising supporters for financial and operational contributions fuels local campaigns, transportation, and voter engagement. Future elections must be approached like complex operations rather than moral crusades. Electoral intelligence, polling-unit protection, legal readiness, voter-suppression countermeasures, and logistical redundancy must replace improvisation. Hope is not a strategy; preparation is.
The movement must also embed itself locally rather than only inspiring nationally. Grassroots relevance comes from continuous community engagement, visible issue ownership, and integration into social and economic networks that shape everyday life. People protect and vote for what they experience, not only what they admire. Leadership decentralisation is equally crucial. The Obedient Movement must outgrow personality dependence by producing local leaders, strengthening state-level power centres, and encouraging internal political maturation. A presidential project without subnational power is structurally weak. The next phase must focus on voter conversion rather than only voter affirmation. Campaigns must expand territory, persuade the undecided, and systematically engage politically indifferent citizens. Finally, the movement must institutionalise itself beyond election cycles through sustained civic engagement, policy advocacy, and issue-based organising, because political credibility grows through continuity, not momentary emotion.
If the Obedient Movement enters 2027 with the same emotional architecture and only improved messaging, it will lose again, regardless of how popular Peter Obi remains. Systems defeat sentiments; structures overpower slogans; organisation overwhelms outrage. Another loss would not only be political; it would be psychological. It would deepen cynicism among young voters, fracture the movement’s base, and potentially relegate it to permanent opposition symbolism. Can the movement afford to repeat 2023? The stakes are not abstract; they are existential for its credibility and future influence.
History is clear: transformative political moments succeed only when moral movements evolve into strategic institutions. The Obedient Movement has already won the hardest battle: awakening political consciousness. Its next battle is more difficult: building political capacity. The choice before it is simple but brutal. It can remain the loudest conscience of Nigerian politics, or it can become one of its governing forces. The time to act is now. Without a deliberate, inclusive, data-driven, and system-conscious electoral strategy, 2027 will not mark a breakthrough; it will mark a repetition. And history is rarely kind to movements that inspire hope but fail to organise power. God is with us!
About the Author
Prof. Chiwuike Uba, Ph.D., is a Nigerian economist, policy expert, and consultant with over 25 years of experience in governance, public financial management, and international development. Prof. Uba is also a prolific writer and commentator on political strategy, civic engagement, and national development.
By Prof. Chiwuike Uba, Ph.D.