Peter Obi, the presidential candidate for the Labour Party in the 2023 elections, has sparked a debate across Northern Nigeria with his recent pledge to serve only one four-year term if elected president in 2027. This promise, intended to align with the country’s unwritten power-sharing agreement between the North and South, has created a schism among Northern elders, political factions, and youth groups.

Obi has defended his one-term vow by referencing global leaders like Abraham Lincoln, John F. Kennedy, and Nelson Mandela, arguing that impactful leadership is not measured by the length of time in office, but by the legacy left behind. He insists that his commitment is not a political maneuver but a deeply held conviction rooted in his track record as governor of Anambra State. He acknowledged the skepticism surrounding his promise, attributing it to a political culture where pledges are often broken, but he maintained that he is “not cut from that cloth.” Obi outlined his priorities for a single term, including improving governance, tackling insecurity, and transforming the economy through agriculture and technology. He believes these goals are achievable within four years and stated unequivocally that he would not stay a day longer.

However, many in the North are not convinced. The Arewa Consultative Forum’s (ACF) National Publicity Secretary, Tukur Muhammad Baba, dismissed the pledge as “crass and unnecessary,” questioning its sincerity and practicality. He pointed out that similar promises have been made in the past without being honored and wondered if Nigerians would truly want to remove a performing president after only one term.

Anthony Sani, a former ACF Secretary General, believes Obi’s promise is a strategic move to accommodate the zoning arrangement, which would see the presidency return to the North in 2031. He argued that since incumbent President Bola Tinubu has only one term left, Northerners might prefer to back him over a new candidate who could potentially serve two terms. Sani also doubted Obi’s ability to single-handedly decide against a second term, suggesting that his political group would ultimately have a say.

Similarly, Salihu Muhammad Danlami, Speaker of the Arewa Youth Assembly, labeled the pledge a “pure desperation to get power,” citing former President Goodluck Jonathan’s similar broken promise. He asserted that the North cannot be swayed by such a cheap vow and that power must return to the North after eight years of Southern leadership.

The National President of the Northern Youth Council of Nigeria, Isah Abubakar, echoed this skepticism, calling it a political tactic and citing former President Muhammadu Buhari’s broken one-term promise as a precedent. He argued that the North should support Tinubu for a second term rather than a new Southern candidate who might not adhere to a four-year term limit.

Conversely, a different perspective was offered by Elder Sunday Oibe of Northern CAN. He argued that the length of a presidency is not as important as the impact created. He questioned why Obi should be distrusted, given his history of success in both private and public life, and suggested that the focus should be on the individual’s vision and capacity rather than their region or duration in office. He believes that Obi’s promise is a genuine effort to contribute to Nigeria’s development and not a desperate attempt to win votes from the North.

Jamilu Charanchi, National Coordinator of the Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG), framed the issue within a broader context of a “chronic trust deficit” in Nigerian politics, where politicians are known for breaking their promises. He highlighted Tinubu’s unfulfilled vow of stable electricity as an example and urged voters to shift from emotional allegiance to strategic judgment based on a candidate’s performance, not their personality or rhetoric.

In Kano, Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) gubernatorial candidate, Salihu Tanko Yakasai, dismissed Obi’s pledge as a “gimmick” that would not sway voters, particularly those in the core North, due to the general untrustworthiness of politicians. He also used Tinubu’s unfulfilled promise to deliver 24-hour electricity as a case in point. The Kebbi State Coordinator of the CNG, Comrade Munsur Guzura, went further, calling Obi’s pledge a “mere political statement” and suggesting that the North would only support him if he ran as a vice-presidential candidate with a Northern presidential candidate like Atiku Abubakar.

Despite the controversy, Obi’s performance in the 2023 elections demonstrated a cross-regional appeal, winning states in both the North and South. This suggests that he could still be a formidable contender in 2027, regardless of the ongoing debate about his one-term pledge. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has already seized on the promise as a political weapon, using it to question his long-term commitment and credibility. However, for many Nigerians, the promise has ignited a debate not just about Obi’s sincerity, but about the very nature of political promises and the country’s unwritten power-sharing agreements.