The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to exit OPEC and the wider OPEC+ framework, a move that could deal a major blow to the oil alliance and its leading member, Saudi Arabia, especially amid heightened global energy tensions linked to the ongoing Iran conflict.

As one of OPEC’s long-standing members, the UAE’s withdrawal is expected to introduce fresh uncertainty within the group, which has historically presented a unified stance despite internal disagreements over production levels and geopolitical issues.

Speaking on the development, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei explained that the decision followed a comprehensive reassessment of the country’s energy strategy, particularly regarding current and future production policies. He noted that the move was made independently, without consultation with other member states.

The timing of the decision coincides with escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy supplies, where disruptions linked to Iranian threats have complicated oil shipments. The strait typically handles a significant share of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.

While Mazrouei suggested the immediate market impact may be limited due to existing volatility, analysts view the development as a potential geopolitical advantage for Donald Trump, who has consistently criticised OPEC’s influence on oil prices and linked U.S. security support for Gulf nations to energy pricing policies.

The UAE’s decision also reflects growing dissatisfaction with regional allies during the conflict with Iran, with officials expressing concern over what they perceive as insufficient support amid ongoing security challenges.